• Where will Satellite Communications end up?

It is estimated that by 2007 there will be around 1200 satellites in orbit operating commercially. This represents a market value of $58 billion so there is a future is satcoms. Ever since Arthur C Clarke suggested the embryonic idea of satcoms back in 1945, and the pioneers John Pierce and Harold rosen helped to develop it into a working reality, the pace of satellite technology has surpassed all expectations year after year.

The driving force has always been communications, initially telephone based, and now the future is brighter than ever thanks to the internet. Multimedia technologies based on IP multicasting will increasingly allow more live television and audio to be sent from anywhere to anywhere in the world.

At present it is already possible to send high quality video over satellite for applications such as news gathering but space is limited and time spent accessing that space is expensive. The future promises more space and more options when deciding how to access that space. For example, if you had a news story in the desert but didn't have the uplink facility required to send your story, you could use that Satellite telephone that you just so happened to have. Its smaller and cheaper to use but has a lower data rate and so the video quality is not as good.

The future will address this problem aswell, however, newer systems are planned with eventual mergers between operators creating giant constellations of satellites offering a huge range of services. Truely global coverage to affordable, small and lightweight terminals will provide more information flow around the world.

The use of small satellites will also increase, this will fill the gaps in communications services that the large geostationary satellites leave open. Such services as store and forward for messaging, especially SMS type messages, is just one simple application.

Whichever way we look at it, the only problem for satellite communications in the future is space, or the lack of it. There will eventually come a time when every low and medium orbit and every slot of geostationary orbit is full. To prevent this we simply need to manage the space effectively by removing old satellites, clearing out the deadwood and making way for new generations of satellite.

With new technologies always on the horizon we may actually need fewer satellites in the future. Each new satellite will be able to do the job of several and as time goes on a virtual monopoly of space communications could emerge. However, each country and large business within it will want either their own satellite or access to an affordable and reliable satellite solution. The question is how affordable is affordable?

Will the future bring a price war and consumer choice, or will we be held to ransom by a few major players?

See also Broadband Services.